North Korea - Results from #180

Park's Historic Dresden Address on Unification

Friday, March 28, 2014 | 12:00 PM

Podcast URL:   <div style="text-align: justify;">An Initiative for Peaceful Unification on the Korean Peninsula:</div> <div style="text-align: justify;"> </div> <div style="text-align: justify;">Dresden,Beyond Division, Toward Integration</div> <div>     Professor Hans Mueller-Steinhagen, former Prime Minister Lothar de Maiziere, students and faculty members of the Dresden University of Technology, ladies and gentlemen.  It is my great pleasure to visit this esteemed German institute of higher learning. It is also a unique privilege to receive an honorary doctorate from a university where the presence of history and tradition can be felt.  As the fastest-growing region in former East Germany, Dresden is an iconic community that has moved beyond division and toward integration. The German people have transformed Dresden into a city brimming with hope - where freedom and abundance suffuse the air.   Those who reach beyond the confines of reality and dream of a better world can draw strength and inspiration from this city.    As I ponder on where a united Germany stands today and where the Korean Peninsula seems headed next year -- namely 70 years of division -- I find myself overwhelmed by the sheer weight of history.     We have a saying in Korea that the impact of education lasts for generations and beyond. Looking around your campus today, I am reminded of how a nation's future is often charted and shaped from the likes of Dresden University of Technology.  The words 'Knowledge builds bridges, education binds people' represent the educational vision of this university. And I am sure it is a vision that will be lived out through the passionate strivings of its students and faculty alike, and will help usher in a brighter future.  As one who studied electronic engineering in college, I hold dear the belief that science and technology are the key to unlocking a nation's advancement.  This is why I established the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning early in my presidency and have been highlighting the importance of building a creative economy.  Ours is an era when the ingenuity and innovation of a single individual can move the world. As we enter this new age, I am seeking to generate new business opportunities and jobs through creative endeavors and innovation; to breathe greater vitality and dynamism into the economy by marrying science and technology and ICT to existing industries.    This is what a creative economy is all about.  We will also strengthen collaboration among academia, industry and local communities -- very much like what the City of Dresden has been doing -- and provide the kind of support that enables a creative economy to spur local renewal and development.  I believe that in our efforts to make Korea's economy more creative, we will continue to find much to draw upon from the future evolution of Dresden and its colleges.  Miracle on the Rhine, Miracle on the Han Ladies and gentlemen. Korea and Germany have long been bound by special links. Fifty years ago, Korea was among the poorest nations in the world, with a per capita income of 87 dollars. Many young Koreans fresh out of college came here to Germany to earn money.  They came as miners and nurses and dedicated themselves to working in the service of their homeland.       As much as Korea sought to lift its economy out of poverty, no country was willing to offer loans to a small nation in the northeast corner of Asia, let alone to a divided one.  It was in those difficult and forlorn times that Germany stepped up and provided 150 million German Marks in loans, while also offering advanced technology and vocational training programs. Germany's help would prove to be a huge boost to Korea's subsequent modernization and economic development.  The Korean president who visited Germany at the time felt that Germany's rise from the ashes of the Second World War and its Miracle on the Rhine were feats that could be replicated in Korea.  As he was driven on the autobahn and shown the steel mills of German industry, he became convinced that Korea too would need its own autobahn and its own steel industry to effect an economic take-off.    When that president sought to build expressways and steel mills upon his return to Korea, he was met with widespread resistance. "What use is an expressway when we don't have cars? Building an expressway is a recipe for failure.” “What’s the point of a steel mill when we’re struggling just to get by?”- went the argument.  But the highways that were eventually paved against such opposition became the solid bedrock on which the Korean economy would rise. Those long stretches of concrete helped remove bottlenecks in the nation’s distribution and logistical networks.   The steel and automobile industries which had thus begun, join the ranks of the top five, six players in the world today.  The desperate country that 50 years ago had been hard-pressed even to obtain loans, has now come of age as the 8th largest trading nation in the world and a major economic partner to Germany.   As President of grateful nation, I thank Germany once again for placing its confidence and trust in the Republic of Korea, helping us pull through those difficult years.  German unification and the dream of Korean unification Ladies and gentlemen,  Germans and Koreans get going when the going gets tough.   In the years following the Second World War, Germany and Korea both endured the pain of seeing their nation divided. But instead of submitting to despair, Germans and Koreans alike marched forward with hope.    From lands ravaged by war, Germans and Koreans worked as hard as any to rebuild. They refused to let up their determination to pass on a better country to future generations.  Thus came the Miracle on the Rhine and the Miracle on the Han River some years later.  Germany would later go on to achieve unification, but Korea has yet to become whole again.  I believe that just as the Miracle on the Rhine was followed by the Miracle on the Han, so too, will unification in Germany be reenacted on the Korean Peninsula.   I remember the bold courage of the German people as unification and integration unfolded.  Even the Berlin Wall, which had seemed so insuperable, couldn’t stop the longing for freedom and peace coming from both sides of the Wall. Years of preparation by the people of East and West Germany eventually succeeded in turning the great dream of unification into reality and, ultimately, even transformed the future of Europe.    A reunited Germany took its place at the heart of Europe. The years since unification have seen Dresden emerge from a backwater into a world-class city known for its advanced science and technology. Other parts of the former East Germany also made huge strides forward.   These are the images of one Germany that encourage those of us in Korea to cement our hope and our conviction that unification must also come on the Korean Peninsula.   I believe that the Republic of Korea will similarly reach ever greater heights after unification. The northern half of the Korean Peninsula will also experience rapid development. A unified Korea that is free from the fear of war and nuclear weapons will be well positioned to make larger contributions to dealing with a wide range of global issues like international peace-keeping, nuclear non-proliferation, environment and energy, and development.    Furthermore, as a new distribution hub linking the Pacific and Eurasia, it is bound to benefit the economies of East Asia and the rest of the world.     Ladies and gentlemen, It pained me to see a recent footage of North Korean boys and girls in the foreign media. Children who lost their parents in the midst of economic distress were left neglected out in the cold, struggling from hunger.     Even as we speak, there are North Koreans who are risking their lives to cross the border in search of freedom and happiness.  The agony inflicted by division is also captured by the plight of countless people who were separated from their families during the war and who have ever since been yearning to see their loved ones without even knowing whether they were still alive.  Just as the German people secured freedom, prosperity and peace by tearing down the Berlin Wall, we too, must tear down barriers in our march toward a new future on the Korean Peninsula. Today, a ‘wall of military confrontation’ runs through the center of the Peninsula.  A ‘wall of distrust’ has also been erected during the war and the ensuing decades of hostility.  Formidable still is a ‘socio-cultural wall’ that divides southerners and northeners who have long lived under vastly different ideologies and systems in terms of how they think and live.  Then there is a ‘wall of isolation’imposed by North Korea’s nuclear program, cutting North Korea off from the community of nations.  All of these curtains must be swept away if we are to unite the Korean Peninsula. And in their place we must build a‘new kind of Korean Peninsula:’a peninsula free of nuclear weapons, free from the fear of war, and free to enjoy life, peace and prosperity.   Preparing for unification Ladies and gentlemen, I harbor no illusions that these tremendous barriers could be torn down with ease. But the future belongs to those who believe in their dreams and act on them. To make today’s dream of peaceful unification tomorrow’s reality, we must begin meticulous preparations now.    Nor do I believe that a nation is made whole again simply by virtue of a reconnected territory or the institution of a single system.  It is when those in the south and the north can understand each other and can get along as people of the same nation, that the Korean Peninsula can truly experience renewal as one.    In my view, Germany was able to overcome the after-shocks of unification fairly quickly and achieve the level of integration we see today because of the sustained people-to-people interaction that took place prior to unification.   Now more than ever, South and North Korea must broaden their exchange and cooperation. What we need is not one-off or promotional events, but the kind of interaction and cooperation that enables ordinary South Koreans and North Koreans to recover a sense of common identity as they help each other out.  And so I hereby present three proposals to North Korean authorities in the hope of laying the groundwork for peaceful unification.  First, we must take up the agenda for humanity -- the concerns of everyday people.  For a start, we must help ease the agony of separated families. It makes little sense to talk about solidarity as one nation, when members of the same family are refused their god-given right to live together.    It has been 70 long years. Last year alone, some three thousand eight hundred people who have yearned a lifetime just to be able to hold their sons’ and daughters’ hands -- just to know whether they’re alive - passed away with their unfulfilled dreams.  I am sure the same is true of their fellow family members in North Korea. Allowing reunions should also give family members in North Korea solace.  In order to address problems arising from family separations, East and West Germany permitted family visits in both directions and steadily promoted exchanges.   It is about time South and North Korea allow family reunions to take place regularly so we could ease their anguish and build trust in doing so.  We will reach out to North Korea to discuss concrete ways to achieve this and engage in necessary consultations with international bodies like the International Committee of the Red Cross.     Going forward, the Republic of Korea will expand humanitarian assistance to ordinary North Koreans.   The Korean Government will work with the United Nations to implement a program to provide health care support for pregnant mothers and infants in North Korea through their first 1,000 days. Furthermore, we will provide assistance for North Korean children so they could grow up to become healthy partners in our journey toward a unified future.  Second, we must pursue together an agenda for co-prosperity through the building of infrastructure that support the livelihood of people.    South and North Korea should collaborate to set up multi-farming complexes that support agriculture, livestock and forestry in areas in the north suffering from backward production and deforestation.  Working together from sowing to harvesting will enable South and North Korea not just to share the fruits of our labor, but also our hearts. As the bonds of trust begin to burgeon between the two sides, we can start to look at larger forms of development cooperation.  To help make life less uncomfortable for ordinary North Koreans, Korea could invest in infrastructure-building projects where possible, such as in transportation and telecommunication. Should North Korea allow South Korea to develop its natural resources, the benefits would accrue to both halves of the peninsula.   This would organically combine South Korean capital and technology with North Korean resources and labor and redound to the eventual formation of an economic community on the Korean Peninsula.   In tandem with trilateral projects among the two Koreas and Russia, including the Rajin-Khasan joint project currently in the works, we will push forward collaborative projects involving both Koreas and China centered on the North Korean city of Shinuiju, among others. hese will help promote shared development on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia.     The international community also needs to take greater interest in getting involved if development projects in North Korea are to proceed more efficiently.   I call on those NGOs from Germany and Europe which have extensive experience working with North Korea on agricultural projects and forestry to join us. I also hereby ask international organizations like the United Nations and the World Bank for their support and cooperation.  Third, we must advance an agenda for integration between the people of South and North Korea.  As the state of division persists year after year, the language, culture and living habits of the two sides continue to diverge. If there is to be real connection and integration between the south and the north, we must narrow the distance between our values and our thinking.   To achieve this, those from the south and the north must be afforded the chance to interact routinely. We will encourage exchanges in historical research and preservation, culture and the arts, and sports -- all of which could promote genuine people-to-people contact - rather than seek politically-motivated projects or promotional events.   Should North Korea so desire, we would be happy to partner with the international community to share our experience in economic management and developing special economic zones, and to provide systematic education and training opportunities relating to finance, tax administration and statistics.   We could also look at jointly developing educational programs to teach future generations and cultivate talent, for it is in them that the long-term engines to propel a unified Korean Peninsula forward will be found.     I hereby propose to North Korea that we jointly establish an ‘inter-Korean exchange and cooperation office’ that would be tasked to realize these ideas.       Ladies and gentlemen,  The armistice line bisecting the peninsula and the demilitarized zone, which is in fact the most militarized stretch of real estate on the planet, best epitomize the reality of our division today. My hope is to see South and North Korea, together with the United nations, moving to build an international peace park inside the DMZ. By clearing barbed-wire fences and mines from parcels of the DMZ, we can start to create a zone of life and peace.    This international peace park will presage the replacement of tension with peace on the DMZ, division with unification, and conflict in Northeast Asia with harmony.   If South and North Korea could shift the adversarial paradigm that exists today, build a railway that runs through the DMZ and connect Asia and Europe, we will see the makings of a genuine 21st century silk road across Eurasia and be able to prosper together.  North Korea must choose the path to denuclearization so we could embark without delay on the work that needs to be done for a unified Korean Peninsula.   I hope North Korea abandons its nuclear aspirations and returns to the Six Party Talks with a sincere willingness to resolve the nuclear issue so it could look after its own people.   Should North Korea make the strategic decision to forgo its nuclear program, South Korea would correspondingly be the first to offer its active support, including for its much needed membership in international financial institutions and attracting international investments. If deemed necessary, we can seek to create a Northeast Asia Development Bank with regional neighbors to spur economic development in North Korea and in surrounding areas.     We could also build on the Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative to address North Korea’s security concerns through a multilateral peace and security system in Northeast Asia.  Here lies the road to shared prosperity between South and North Korea and here lies the path to peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia.  Korea will aspire to a unification that promotes harmony with its neighbors, that is embraced by the community of nations, and that serves the cause of the international community. With a view to ushering in an era peaceful unification on the Korean Peninsula, I will soon be launching a committee to prepare for unification -- one that reports directly to me as president.  People from inside and outside the government will come together through this committee to muster our collective wisdom as we more fully prepare for the process of unification and integration.  Unification as the march of history toward justice and peace Citizens and students of Dresden,  Human history has been an incessant march towards justice and towards peace.  Just as Germany turned the great wheels of history forward from the western end of Eurasia, a new chapter in mankind’s progress will start from its eastern tip, namely the Korean Peninsula.  Just as German unification represented the inexorable tide of history, I believe that Korean unification is a matter of historical inevitability.  For nothing can repress the human yearning for dignity, freedom and prosperity.     Today I stand behind this podium and observe the faces of young German students bound together by an impassioned quest for truth. And as I do so, I am also picturing the day when young students from both halves of a unified Korean Peninsula are studying side by side and nurturing their dreams together.     Mark my words -- that day will come.  And when that day arrives, young people from Germany, from the whole of Korea and from all over the world, will exchange their vision of a better world as they travel back and forth between Asia and Europe through a Eurasian railway.  I ask our friends here in Germany to join us on this journey to peaceful unification.  ‘Wir sind ein Volk!’ The day will soon come when these powerful words that united the people of East and West Germany echoes across the Korean Peninsula.  In closing, may a prosperous future await our true friends here in Germany and here at the Dresden University of Technology. Thank you. </div>
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On March 28, 2014, Korean President Park Geun-hye delivered a historic address on Korean unification at the Dresden University of Technology in Dresden, Germany. Friday, March 28, 2014 Park's Historic Dresden Address on Unification Read More

UN Commission of Inquiry Report on North Korea

Thursday, March 27, 2014 | 12:00 PM

About the Speaker Title: UN Commission of Inquiry Report on North Korea
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Event Link: Frank Jannuzi is the Deputy Executive Director of Advocacy, Policy and Research and Head of Washington, DC office. Frank Jannuzi has executive responsibility for the four organizational units in Amnesty International USA's Advocacy, Policy and Research Department. He also serves as Head of the Washington, DC office and is the focal point-person for decision-making on how we engage in policy discussions in Washington and how we respond to developments that are influenced by U.S. foreign policy. Prior to AIUSA, Frank served as Policy Director for East Asian and Pacific Affairs for the Democratic staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, advising Senator John Kerry on policy options, drafting legislation authorizing U.S. diplomatic operations, security assistance, and foreign aid, and representing Senator Kerry in discussions with the American public as well as with foreign government officials and the media. His Senate service has included work on human rights legislation as well as field investigations into human rights conditions in numerous East Asian hotspots. Frank has worked as the East Asia regional political-military analyst for the Bureau of Intelligence and Research and was the founding editor-in-chief of the State Department's journal on multilateral peacekeeping and humanitarian operations. Frank holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in History from Yale University and Master's degree in Public Policy from the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
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Registration Form: Studio Korea @ The Korea Society
Summit External URL: <img src="images/icons/2013/studio_korea-logo.jpg" width="238" height="142" alt="studio korea-logo" /> Be part of a live audience for special recording sessions. Delve into the day’s headlines, dialogue with special guests from policy, finance, research, academe, international organizations, and the media, and determine new trends, priorities, and approaches in and toward East Asia and the Korean Peninsula.

Amnesty International’s Frank Jannuzi discusses the release of the United Nations Commission of Inquiry (COI) report of North Korean human rights violations. The report follows an extensive year-long review, including testimony by victims of the regime. Frank Jannuzi, Deputy Executive Director of Advocacy, Policy and Research and Head of Washington, DC Office of Amnesty International In conversation with Dr. Stephen Noerper, Senior Vice President of The Korea... Read More

The Choco Pie-ization of North Korea

Wednesday, January 15, 2014 | 12:00 PM

About the Speaker Title: The Choco Pie-ization of North Korea
About the Speaker: 2014-01-15 12:00:00
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Event Link: Jin Joo Chae, a South Korean artist working with printmaking and mixed media installation. A graduate of Columbia School of the Arts and Hongik University in Seoul, Chae has exhibited in the United States, Europe, and throughout Asia.  She is an accomplished printmaker and has participated in international print exhibitions and biennials, including at the International Print Center New York in Fall 2013. Her works are in the collection of the Tokyo Metropolitan Art Museum and Sakima Art Museum in Okinawa.PBS, PRI, CNN, ABC, NBC, CBC, NECN, Al Jazeera, etc.
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Join dynamic contemporary artist Jin Joo Chae in this Studio Korea session. Jin Joo Chae employs printmaking and mixed media and is concerned with American coverage of the tense dynamics between North and South Korea. Using fragile and fragrant media--newspaper and screen-printed chocolate--she manipulates dominant political narratives to suggest more complex and physically embodied realities. Playful modes and materials are subverted to suggest a helplessness and desire for transformation. The Choco... Read More

China-Korea-U.S Relations A Robert Scalpino Memorial Dialogue

Friday, December 13, 2013 | 9:00 AM

Korea’s President and her advisors speak of hope for enhanced trilateral relations among Korea, the United States and China. 2013’s historic summits between Obama and Park, Obama and Xi, and Park and Xi revealed a growing complementarity of positions vis-a-vis North Korea and common calls for denuclearization. How does Korea navigate space among its great ally and great neighbor, balancing political-security and economic realities? How do domestic political determinants influence foreign policy in this area for... Read More

Ouster in North Korea Leaves World Watching

Wednesday, December 11, 2013 | 11:00 AM

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Summit External URL: <iframe width="270" height="54" scrolling="no" src="//www.thetakeaway.org/widgets/ondemand_player/#file=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetakeaway.org%2Faudio%2Fxspf%2F335726%2F;containerClass=takeaway"></iframe>

On December 11th, 2013, Ambassador Thomas Hubbard, chairman of the Korea Society, appeared on Public Radio International's The Takeaway. He discussed the significance of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un ousting his uncle and mentor Jang Song-thaek from office with host John Hockenberry. http://www.thetakeaway.org/story/ouster-north-korea-leaves-world-watching/ Read More

The Two Koreas Release with Robert Carlin

Tuesday, December 10, 2013 | 5:30 PM

Korea uber-analyst and author Bob Carlin discusses on the day of its re-release what many consider the foremost book on modern Korea, Don Oberdorfer’s The Two Koreas. Carlin wrote the updated forward, bringing this arresting publication, loved by university students, business leaders and public alike, to a new generation of readers. Carlin discusses the changes on the Korean Peninsula since the publication’s initial release, the publication’s continued relevance, and his labor of love saluting Van Fleet awardee... Read More

The Korean Peninsula and Strategic Risk with Bruce Klingner

Thursday, November 14, 2013 | 5:30 PM

About the Speaker Title: The Korean Peninsula and Strategic Risk
About the Speaker: 2013-11-14 17:30:00
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Event Link: Bruce Klingner is the senior research fellow for Northeast Asia in The Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center. Klingner’s analysis and writing about North Korea, South Korea, Japan and related issues are informed by his 20 years working at the Central Intelligence Agency and the Defense Intelligence Agency. From 1996 to 2001, Klingner was CIA’s deputy division chief for Korea, responsible for the analysis of political, military, economic and leadership issues for the president of the United States and other senior U.S. policymakers. In 1993-1994, he was the chief of CIA's Korea branch, which analyzed military developments during a nuclear crisis with North Korea. Klingner, who joined Heritage in 2007, has testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. He is a frequent commentator in U.S. and foreign media, including television news programs for ABC, CBS, Fox, CNN, MSNBC, BBC, Bloomberg and C-Span. His articles and commentary have appeared in major American publications such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The Los Angeles Times, USA Today, Christian Science Monitor, Newsweek and Fortune, as well as in overseas outlets such as The Financial Times, Chosun Ilbo, Joongang Ilbo, Kyodo News and Nikkei Weekly. Klingner is a distinguished graduate of the National War College, where he received a master's degree in national security strategy in 2002. He also holds a master's degree in strategic intelligence from the Defense Intelligence College and a bachelor's degree in political science from Middlebury College in Vermont. He is active in Korean martial arts, attaining third-degree black belt in taekwondo and first-degree black belt in hapkido and teuk kong moo sool.
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Heritage Senior Research Fellow in Northeast Asia and blog-force Bruce Klingner opines on recent challenges on the Korean Peninsula and implications for those assessing strategic risk on the Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. Klingner is a former intelligence official, Intellibridge executive and Eurasia Group analyst, and is a frequent voice on Capitol Hill and in the media. Klingner offers a Studio Korea audience insight into how to analyze North Korea, identify tripwires, and weigh Chinese and other changes on... Read More

The Korean Peninsula and Strategic Risk

Friday, September 20, 2013 | 10:00 AM

Korea’s Ambassador for International Security, the Honorable Chung Min Lee, addresses changes on the Korean Peninsula, recent challenges from North Korea, attendant market impacts, and the evolving investment climate for U.S. and international business. This special Studio Korea session lends insight into immediate security concerns, as well as mid and long-term opportunities and challenges. Lee served as a senior campaign advisor to now-President Park Geun-hye and was a Dean and professor at Yonsei... Read More

Journey to North and South Korea

Thursday, July 18, 2013 | 6:30 PM

About the Speaker Title: Journey to North and South Korea
About the Speaker: 2013-07-18 18:30:00
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Event Link: Mark Edward Harris has traveled and photographed in more than 80 countries. He is the author of several books, including Inside Iran, Inside North Korea, Mark Edward Harris: Wanderlust , Faces of the Twentieth Century - Master Photographers & Their Work, and his photographs have appeared in Life, GEO, Stern, Playboy, American Photo, B&W, Condé Nast Traveler, the New York Times, Times of London, Los Angeles Times Magazine, and numerous other publications.<a href="http://www.markedwardharris.com/"> </a><a href="http://www.markedwardharris.com">www.MarkEdwardHarris.com</a>
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In commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the Korean War armistice, award-winning photographer Mark Edward Harris has published North Korea and South Korea, books that capture the two drastically different realities of the divided peninsula. Thursday, July 18, 2013 6:00 PM | Registration and Refreshments6:30 PM | Gallery Talk and Q & A Journey to North and South Korea with Mark Edward HarrisPhotographer Read More

Northeast Asia Regional Review

Friday, June 14, 2013 | 10:00 AM

About the Speaker Title: Northeast Asia Regional Review
About the Speaker: 2013-06-14 10:00:00
Event Name: NCAFP Members & The Korea Society FREE
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Event Link: Donald S. Zagoria is Senior Vice President at the National Committee on American Foreign Policy. The Forum runs four major track II dialogues on regional security issues in the Asia-Pacific. Prior to joining the NCAFP, Professor Zagoria was a consultant during the Carter Administration to both the National Security Council and the East Asian Bureau of the State Department. He has also worked for the RAND Corporation and taught courses on United States foreign policy and the international relations of East Asia at Hunter College for many years. Professor Zagoria is also actively associated with the East Asian Institute of Columbia University, has been a member of several Columbia University study groups and is actively involved with the Asia Society and the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. He has written or edited four books and more than 300 articles on relations among the great powers in the Asia-Pacific region. Professor Zagoria earned his BA at Rutgers University and his M.A. and Ph.D. at Columbia University.   Evans J.R. Revere is senior director with the Albright Stonebridge Group, providing strategic advice to clients with a specific focus on Korea, China, and Japan. From 2007-2010, Revere served as President and CEO of The Korea Society. Fluent in Chinese, Korean, and Japanese, Revere retired from the Foreign Service in 2007 after a distinguished career as one of the U.S. Department of State's top Asia experts. He won numerous awards during his career, which included service as the principal deputy assistant secretary and acting assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, and deputy chief of mission and charge d'affaires of the U.S. Embassy in Seoul. Revere has extensive experience in negotiations with North Korea. Revere graduated with honors from Princeton University with a degree in East Asian Studies. He is a veteran of the U.S. Air Force and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.   The Honorable Winston Lord currently serves as Co-Chairman of the International Rescue Committee. For three decades, Ambassador Lord has been at the center of U.S.-China relations. As Special Assistant to the National Security Advisor, he accompanied Henry Kissinger on his secret visit to China and President Nixon on his historic opening in the early 1970’s, as well as subsequent trips by President Ford and Dr. Kissinger. From 1985-1989, he served as Ambassador to Beijing under President Reagan and Bush. From 1993-1997, he was Assistant Secretary of State in charge of all East Asian policy, including China, under President Clinton. Lord’s other key government assignments were as the State Department Director of Policy Planning 1973-1977, and in the Defense and State Departments in the 1960’s. In between governmental posts, Ambassador Lord has headed a variety of private organizations related to international affairs-as President of the Council on Foreign Relations 1977-85, as well as Chairman of the National Endowment for Democracy and Chairman of the Carnegie Endowment National Commission on America and the New World in the early 1990s. Ambassador Lord earned a B.A. from Yale (magna cum laude) and an M.A. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (first in the class). He has received several honorary degrees, the State Department’s Distinguished Honor Award and the Defense Department’s Outstanding Performance Award.  Of Interest:   <a href="http://csis.org/files/publication/Pac1338A.pdf">Sunnylands: The Obama-Xi Summit</a> by Stephen Noerper, Senior Vice President of The Korea Society
Podcast URL: Northeast Asia Regional Review with Donald S. Zagoria, Senior Vice President, National Committee on American Foreign Policy Evans Revere, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution Ambassador Winston Lord, Co-chairman, International Rescue Committee Ambassador Mark Minton, President, The Korea Society (Moderator)   AMBASSADOR MINTON: (Moderator) Good morning everyone, and welcome to The Korea Society. I'm President Mark Minton. On May 16, the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and The Korea Society jointly sponsored a quadrilateral meeting of distinguished academics and former government officials from the United States, China, the Republic of Korea and Japan. I believe that was an especially fruitful session. We discussed many of the problems in Northeast Asia and also the relationship between and among the countries involved. For us, at least, it was a suitable introduction to the rather rapid pace of high-level diplomacy that has subsequently taken place. Just a short time ago we had a Republic of Korea-United States summit in Washington, D.C. Madam Park Geun-hye, the President of the Republic of Korea, had her first meeting with President Obama. Shortly after that was the China-U.S. summit in California. On the 27th of this month will be the Republic of Korea-China summit in Beijing. I'm sure all of you in this distinguished audience were hopeful, as we were, that there would be a North-South Korean engagement last week to try to repair a very frayed relationship. If this had taken place, it would have been the first meaningful, high-level interaction of cabinet ministers between North and South Korea in six years. Unfortunately, but not surprisingly, that meeting did not take place. It was canceled because of a disagreement over protocol. Regardless, all of these events have made this an especially fruitful time to take a closer look at relationships in Northeast Asia and some of the issues that the participant countries and international community are attempting to resolve. We have gathered together today a distinguished panel to discuss some of these issues. Ambassador Winston Lord needs no introduction. He is a former ambassador to China, former director of the policy planning staff at the State Department, former assistant secretary of state for East Asian Pacific Affairs, and accompanied Nixon and Kissinger to China. Ambassador Lord will focus on the recent China-U.S. summit. Dr. Donald S. Zagoria, senior vice president of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, is a frequent contributor to our programs here at The Korea Society and a most distinguished East Asian specialist. He's taught at Hunter College and Columbia University, along with being a consultant to the National Security Council and State Department on Northeast Asian issues. Finally, we have an old friend, Evans Revere. Evans had a long and distinguished diplomatic career which focused on China, Japan and Korea. He's former director of the Office of Korean Affairs in the State Department, former principal deputy assistant secretary for East Asia and was also, for quite some time, acting assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. He is currently a senior director with the Albright Stonebridge Group in Washington. He served prior as president of The Korea Society.   I would like to start by asking Dr. Zagoria to provide a regional overview based on these recent high-level meetings--a very productive Track II quadrilateral meeting.   DONALD ZAGORIA: I would like to take this opportunity to thank The Korea Society for co-hosting that meeting along with today. Now, we have arranged this meeting in such a way that my two colleagues, Win Lord and Evans Revere, will be doing the difficult work. The two biggest problems in Asian security today have to do with the rise of China and North Korea. I will begin with a regional overview. Madam Park, the new President of South Korea, has aptly characterized the present regional situation in East Asia as the "Asian Paradox." My understanding is that while visiting the White House, she lectured to President Obama for some time on the nature of this paradox. That paradox represents the fact that we're talking about a region that is booming economically. We have the first, second and third largest economies in the world (the United States, China and Japan), along with South Korea (now the fifteenth largest economy in the world), in addition to several emerging new powers (such as Indonesia, India, and several countries in Southeast Asia). This has generated an extraordinarily dynamic economic situation. That's the good news—the booming economies. The bad news (and this is the other side of the paradox) is the geopolitical tensions in the region. I'll just take a moment to enumerate those as they're very numerous and very worrisome. First there is the inevitable friction between the rising power China and the dominant power the United States—what Graham Allison of Harvard has called the "Thucydides Trap.” The Thucydides Trap (all of you historians will understand immediately) has to do with the origins of the Peloponnesian War and the explanation by Thucydides that the war was largely caused by the rise of Sparta and the fear this caused in Athens at the time. Accompanying this structural problem in U.S.-China relations are specific issues that I'm sure Ambassador Lord will go into, including the recent cyber attack issue along with a host of economic issues. Taiwan remains an issue. North Korea remains an issue. That is number one—what might be called the strategic drift that many people worry about when it comes to U.S.-China relations. Hopefully the recent summit has set in motion a process to address that. The second major source of tension in the region is North Korea, which I'm sure Evans will tell, you in great detail, is determined to remain an unrestrained nuclear power, developing both nuclear weapons and missiles to carry them. In addition, North Korea has recently stated it is no longer interested in denuclearization and no longer even accepts the principle of denuclearization that it agreed to in earlier meetings in 2005 and 2007. This declaration has the potential to not just threaten North Korea's neighbors, but also to disrupt the entire anti-proliferation regime that has so carefully been crafted by us in recent years. The third problem is the lingering tension between Japan and South Korea. Territorial issues and different historical factors have been a source of particular concern to the United States, because those two countries are our allies and we would like to see greater trilateral security cooperation. That remains on hold as long as these tensions persist. Fourth are territorial and maritime issues in the South China and East China seas that involve both China and Japan. This is one set of frictions. China and several Southeast Asian countries (Vietnam and the Philippines particularly) is another set of frictions. Then there is what many have come to call an "assertive China," determined to protect what it refers to as its "core interests." I would add to this list an absence of any formal regional security architectures (such as NATO in Europe) plus growing nationalisms throughout the region. This is a very dangerous and volatile mix. Those of us with a sense of history point to the fact that we don't want to see Asia repeat the experience of twentieth century Europe—when a combination of power rivalries, rival nationalisms and territorial disputes led to two disruptive world wars. We're still living with the consequences of that. I have a long list here about how to resolve the paradox, but let me make a couple of very quick points. First, there is a real success story in Asia, and that's the Taiwan-China relationship. If we were convening this meeting ten or fifteen years ago, Taiwan would have been one of the top flash points in the region. How was that worked out? To put it shortly and sweetly, there was a political accommodation between pragmatic leaders on the mainland and in Taiwan (and particularly since Ma Ying-jeou was elected president in 2008). These leaders were determined to bridge the gap between them. Many of the most fundamental problems are still there, but they have managed to ease tensions significantly: signing sixteen agreements, including an economic agreement. This is the type of political accommodation process I urge the United States, China, Japan, Korea and the rest of Southeast Asia to address.   MARK MINTON: Thank you, Dr. Zagoria. Ambassador Lord?   AMBASSADOR LORD: I can sum up the U.S-China summit with a historical anecdote. During the mid-1970s, Dr. Kissinger met with Zhou Enlai (I was at that meeting). Kissinger asked Zhou Enlai how he would describe the impact of the French Revolution, and he responded that it was too soon to tell. Now, if we can't understand the impact of the French Revolution after 200 years, it would be hard to understand the impact of a summit held only two weeks ago. That is my basic point and I could stop right here. It is, in fact, too early to tell. We'll have to see how relations unfold over the coming months and years, beginning this July with strategic and economic dialogues. Officials on both sides are spinning the summit outcome, and I think we should guard against either euphoria or cynicism. As to the so-called expert commentators in the media, I recall the old saying: "Those who know what really happened aren't talking, and those who are talking don't really know what happened." In all seriousness, let's not make premature judgments either by way of cynicism or euphoria. I believe all of us on this panel were happy this meeting took place. The National Committee along with Evans, Don, and I have called for precisely this kind of informal, shirt-sleeve remote location for these summits. We want to talk strategically, and get rid of the entourages, the scripts and the talking points. I was disappointed that the meeting only lasted fifty minutes. The rest of the time they sat across the table from each other which I believe defeats the purpose. And fifty minutes with interpreters means only twenty-five minutes of discussion. That really was disappointing to me. I am pleased that Xi has invited Obama back for a similar type of informal meeting within the next six months or so, at a date not specified. In addition, they will meet again at various regional and international conferences. In the meantime, I'm sure they will stay in constant touch by phone. I believe there are two central purposes for this kind of meeting: personal chemistry and strategic intentions. The importance of personal chemistry should not be exaggerated. Obviously nations act on the basis of national interest regardless of whether the leaders like each other or not, but it's not unimportant either. They're not going to establish mutual trust. They will hopefully establish mutual comprehension or credibility. Should there be a crisis, then they can get on the phone and make sure that some macho ship commanders aren't getting us into World War III. Or if there is a logjam on negotiations, they can hopefully make the kind of breakthrough that their subordinates are unable to accomplish. Although I would not dismiss the value of personal chemistry, it's impossible to tell how this went. They're not going to spin it and say they love each other. That wouldn't be credible. They're not going to make it appear as if Obama landed two jabs and Xi a couple of upper cuts. That wouldn't be much of a spin, either. It seems like they got along pretty well. In any event, personal relations are necessary, but insufficient. You also need a sense for each other's strategic goals and red lines. Here, again, it's tough to judge. I would like to know how Xi responded when Obama asked him what he means by the renaissance of the Chinese Dream, and whether that is a deserved natural historical impulse given China's size and growth, or whether it is something nationalistic and worrisome; what Mr. Xi means by resetting great power relations and what Mr. Xi means about avoiding the Thucydides Trap.   And I'd like to know what Obama said when Xi presumably asked him if he wanted to accept the rise of China or, in fact, wanted to try to keep China down. And what Obama meant by this rebalancing towards Asia. Is that containment? Again, on balance, let's not be prematurely cynical. I hope they had the kind of discussions which could more constructively frame future discussions on other issues and help make progress against this kind of strategic backdrop. In the remaining time I have, let me quickly go through specific issues. The one concrete outcome (and they weren't looking for concrete outcomes) was an agreement on a certain aspect of climate change. I think this is helpful as the issue of energy and the environment is a major area of mutual interest—particularly with the increase in energy production by the United States and China's concerns about pollution. We can build positive momentum in our relationship and work towards resolving the world's climate problem. North Korea I'll leave to Evans Revere except to say that the conventional wisdom is that progress was made. I'll be very interested to hear Evans's view. I have felt for some time that China is part of the problem and not the solution. They've made some tactical adjustments. Leaning on North Korea has led them back to talks with the South Koreans (there is a current logjam on that) and led them to back off from their bellicosity. They are frustrated with North Korea and it's hurting some of China's own interests. I think it's a tactical shift, not a fundamental one. They're still too worried about instability, regime collapse, and a unified Korea on their border with American troops. I don't think this act will be a strategic shift. They're a safety net for North Korea and they let the pressure off North Korea. On cyber warfare, the conventional wisdom is the other way around—that no progress was made. Here I would guard against the conventional wisdom. You can't expect the Chinese to get up and say, "Mea culpa." We now have a working group set up and both sides are willing to at least talk about the fact there is a problem. I wouldn't rule out future progress on that. This is a difficult and extremely complex issue. We don't have time to go into it now, but I may have some time during the Q&A session to distinguish what we're doing from what the Chinese are doing. We're totally different societies. Mr. Snowden (who is currently in Hong Kong) is a traitor. He is not only hurting our national security on terrorism, but he's hurting our ability to lean on China. They will use this as propaganda to cloud over the issues of who's doing what to whom.   Maritime disputes presumably have come up. There are two kinds of maritime problems. The first are bilateral ones we have with the Chinese (particularly whether we can operate within the 200 mile economic zone). International law says we can, and China doesn't like that. The good news is that the Chinese are now patrolling our economic zone, and that may help us lower the tension on this issue. The other maritime problem is the one Don mentioned—the East and South China seas. The Chinese are being aggressive. Xi was in charge of this policy even before he became president. It seems to me to fit his general nationalistic bent. I'm very concerned about an accident drawing us into a conflict there. We have treaty commitments, of course, with both Japan and the Philippines. As to Taiwan, the good news is that it wasn't talked about much in the meeting and, as Don said, this would have been a major issue in the past. Things are in pretty good shape. The Chinese have spun to their audience that they were as tough on arms sales as they were on maritime disputes. We expect that kind of spin. We should touch on economics. The cyber war has become a huge issue. I'm glad Obama was able to lay out concrete evidence of China's involvement. Other equally disturbing issues include intellectual property theft, but there are some positive signs we can get into. We should encourage Chinese foreign investment, relax some of our export controls and promote the development of technology consistent with transparency and security. One issue that was barely addressed, if at all, was human rights and democracy. This is a glaring omission and it has been this way for four and a half years under Obama. Just as the summit ended, the Chinese sentenced the brother-in-law of imprisoned Nobel Prize winner Liu Xiaobo to eleven years. His wife, Liu Xia, is currently under house arrest. This serves as a symbol of the increasing repression taking place. Xi shows no signs of political reform and indeed is cracking down harder. He's even praising Mao and railing against Western values. This is a concern because we can't allow this to dominate our agenda with China, but it can't be ignored, either. Obama's been ignoring addressing the issue because it's in our national interest to have a more open China. We can't be arrogant. The resolution must come from the Chinese, but addressing it serves security and other interests while reflecting our values and encouraging Chinese reform. It's in China's own self-interest. Until this problem shows some progress (and I see no evidence of this in coming years) there's going to be a ceiling on our relationship and that will complicate all concrete issues I've discussed. Thank you.   MARK MINTON: Thank you, Ambassador Lord. Evans Revere?   EVANS REVERE: Thank you. It's good to be back. I've been asked to talk a bit about the Korean Peninsula. When you discuss the situation on the Peninsula there's always a mixture of good news and bad news. I'll start with the good news, which Mark has already alluded to, and that is that President Park had an excellent visit to Washington, D.C. a few weeks back. I had the pleasure and honor of participating in a number of the events connected with the visit, and I came away deeply impressed with the way the visit was managed on the U.S. side as well as the Korean side. I was particularly impressed by the way President Park managed her speeches, her remarks, and her various interactions both on the substantive front but also on the symbolic front. I think this was a real step forward in U.S.-ROK relations. I was very comforted to see that the chemistry between the two presidents was extremely good. Just in advance of her visit to Washington, I did an interview with a reporter who asked me what I felt would the most important thing to come out of this summit meeting between the two presidents—whether that be coordination on Korea or Japan or China. I said, "The most important thing is the personal relationship that the two presidents will form or not form, as the case may be." I came away from this summit very impressed at the way the two presidents connected. There's clearly a tremendous sense of admiration between the two. There's one photograph, in particular, that was on the front page of the New York Times showing the two presidents seated next to each other in the Oval Office. That photograph really said it all about the level of connectivity between the two. President Park's remarks were uniformly excellent. Her speech to the Joint Session of Congress, if you have not seen it, is really a must-read. It's very eloquent with a very thoughtful set of remarks. It's very clear she is a leader: a woman of tremendous vision and foresight. Both her vision for the bilateral relationship, relations with North Korea and for the region at large came through very clearly in that set of remarks and others that she delivered. Overall, I think the visit certainly reinforced the considerable strength of the U.S.-ROK alliance and got the relationship between the two countries and the two presidents off to a very good start. She came across personally as a very calm and thoughtful leader and someone who was unusually able to mix both firmness and vision. In her visit, the issue of relations with the North came up, as we all expected it would, and she emphasized her effort to try to reestablish dialogue with North Korea under the rubric of her trustpolitik effort to reach out to the North. That, as I think Mark alluded to, had inspired some hope that relations with North Korea would get back on a more positive track. Those hopes, unfortunately, have been quickly and somewhat predictably dashed, I would say. As we've also seen, in recent weeks (and this gets into the bad news area of the Korean Peninsula) the North Koreans are making increasingly personal remarks about President Park and the ROK. That's never a good sign. Earlier in Madam Park's term, the North Koreans greeted the new ROK president, the second term of the Obama administration, the new Chinese leader and the new Japanese leader with an almost unprecedented outburst of rhetoric and threats. Some of these threats were general, some of them rather specific; but all of them much more severe than almost anything we've ever heard coming out of Pyongyang. This is saying a lot for those of you who have been following the rhetoric over the years. Among the various threats that North Korea made were very specific threats to use their nuclear weapons, specifically against the United States. I was reminded, as things began to calm down, that perhaps one of the most important takeaways of this very rough patch we've been through with North Korea is remembering that North Korea is the only country in the world that has vocally and repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons. That's a very dubious distinction and it's a very disturbing one. The good news is that a combination of U.S.-ROK coordination and firmness helped calm the troubled waters that North Korea was stirring up in recent months, and there has been, indeed, a calming of the rhetoric. We're not hearing the almost daily breast-beating threats coming out of Pyongyang. I think there are several reasons why things have calmed down, including the fact that the U.S. and ROK were working in lockstep and very clear and firm about how they would respond to a physical provocation as opposed to a rhetorical provocation from North Korea. Another reason I believe things have calmed down includes the fact that North Korea, by the very nature of its economy which is always shaky at best, cannot physically sustain the level of military mobilization that it engaged in earlier this year. This is a country of 23 million people with a military of over 1 million people under arms. Its very shaky economic foundation makes it unable to keep up the level of military mobilization it had to maintain during the height of this crisis. In addition, when late April and early May come around every year, one of the most important tasks of North Korean soldiers is to go out into the fields and help the farmers. If they don't, the North Korean people are going to eat even less than they normally do in September, October and November. This was another incentive for the North Koreans to begin to ratchet down the rhetoric and ratchet down the temperature, if you will, on the Korean Peninsula. There's another very practical reason, as well. With the freezing of the Kaesong Industrial Project and the withdrawal of South Korean managers and North Korean workers, the North Koreans had to forego a pretty substantial income stream that comes out of the Kaesong project. Some estimates put the number as high as $90-100 million dollars a year earned by North Korea from that facility at Kaesong. Shutting it down not only put 53,000 North Koreans out of work, but 200,000 plus family members with no income to sustain themselves. That was another incentive bringing the North Koreans down to earth and back to reality. Of course, the North Koreans are also concerned about alienating China, a major source of aid and sustenance. China, I think, has been quietly and in its own way pressuring the North Koreans—urging them to get back to the table and urging them to reduce the level of tensions on the Korean Peninsula. I think the Chinese efforts behind the scenes have been helpful. Building on a point that Ambassador Lord mentioned a little bit earlier, I would tend to agree with him. I think that the Chinese shift—in terms of being willing to put more pressure on North Korea and be more critical privately and publicly of North Korea—is more tactical than it is strategic. At the end of the day, I do not believe that the fundamental Chinese strategic calculus on the Korean peninsula has changed. China sees the continued existence of North Korea—even a problematic and troublesome North Korea—as better than a North Korea that goes out of business. We can talk about that more during the Q&A period. As I said before, the good news is there has been a calm coming over a very troubling situation on the Korean peninsula. As you've seen in recent weeks, North Korea has reached out to Japan. There were some discussions by a representative of the prime minister who traveled (secretly he thought) to Pyongyang only to be filmed by the AP and others who were on the tarmac when he arrived. Nothing much seems to have come out of those discussions, but I would not be surprised to see them continue at some point in the coming months. The abductee issue is a very sensitive one in Japan. I think the Japanese are likely to come back to the table at some point to try to continue those discussions. We've also seen the visit to Beijing of senior North Korean representative Vice Marshal Choe Ryong Hae, one of the core inner circle members of the elite in Pyongyang. Choe traveled to China for various reasons, one of which may have been to try to secure Chinese acceptance of a visit by Kim Jong-un to Beijing. That visit has been rumored for quite some time, but doesn't seem to be in the cards anytime soon. This tells you something about Chinese receptivity to North Korea these days. If you look at some of the photographs that came out of the visit of Vice Marshal Choe to Beijing, you see some very interesting body language suggesting that both sides were rather uncomfortable with each other. The fact that a very senior North Korean military officer made a point of wearing his uniform and hat in meetings with every single one of his Chinese counterparts, but when he was ushered into the presence of the Chinese leader took hat and uniform off and wore his civilian clothes, apparently at Chinese insistence, was a very nice touch by Beijing, I thought. The North Koreans have also reached out in an effort to try to restart the Kaesong project and to have dialogue and other issues with South Korea. I think that's rather predictable for the reasons that I've mentioned. As a rule, after a period of ramping up tensions, the North Koreans always like to reengage with their various adversaries (including the South, the Japanese and the United States) in an effort to see what they can do to be rewarded for ramping down tensions. And so, here we are, right on schedule seeing this happen again; except we obviously had a bump in the road over a protocol issue the other day. Anybody in this room who's ever negotiated with the North Koreans (as I have for more hours than I care to remember) knows that protocol issues are a critical component of North Korean strategy at every meeting, and I think the ROK did the right thing by refusing to play the game this time. Will the North Koreans reach out to us in the way that they've reached out to the other players? That's a big question. The stumbling block to any resumption of U.S.-DPRK talks is the fact that the North Korean position (stated privately to me and others in this room as well as publicly) is that there is no longer a basis for a denuclearization discussion. The North Korean position is that they are over that. They are not going to talk about getting rid of their nuclear weapons any longer. Denuclearization is no longer their goal and even the principle of denuclearization is something that the North Koreans have recently become unwilling to commit themselves to. And since the United States position is that we're prepared to talk with the North Koreans as long as the discussion deals with denuclearization, you see we have a problem here. The North Koreans may want to talk about a peace treaty or a peace regime or removal of U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula, but they do not want to talk about denuclearization. This is, indeed, a problem.   One of the more interesting things to come out of the U.S.-China summit is that both countries reaffirmed the fact that they are committed to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and that they are committed to the resumption of dialogue about denuclearization—which puts the United States and China somewhat at odds with the current stated North Korean position. So, we have an issue here. How that's going to be resolved is perhaps something we can discuss during the Q&A period. I would like to say just a couple of words about another issue that Don Zagoria alluded to earlier, and that is the troubling relationship between Tokyo and Seoul. I continue to be very concerned with the fact that the two major allies of the United States in that region are at loggerheads and continue to be at loggerheads over historical, territorial and other issues. This is very troubling. It's a very unhelpful situation. It's a situation that I don't think, at the end of the day, is in the interests of either of those two countries and it's not in the interest of the United States either. We cannot defend the Republic of Korea without the use of our bases and the cooperation of our Japanese allies. For that matter, we cannot defend Japan without the cooperation of our Korean friends. It is, therefore, in everybody's interest to try to put some of these differences behind us and get back on the same page, and I'm hoping that can happen. The current situation between Tokyo and Seoul, I think, only works to the advantage of North Korea, and one can well imagine how Beijing views the fact that America's two strongest and closest allies in Northeast Asia are more often at each other's throats than they are on the same page. This is not a good situation. Let me just close by saying there's a mixture of good news and bad news on the China issue. I'd like to again stress the fact that I think China's shift is an interesting tactical one, but at the end of the day I don't think it's a strategic one. I do believe that some of the Chinese rhetoric and some of the specific actions have assisted in nudging North Korea back in a more helpful direction. But at the end of the day, we have a major problem before us—that all of the countries in the region seem to be willing to talk to North Korea; but North Korea is saying we'll talk to anybody as long as the subject is not denuclearization. That is fundamentally an unacceptable position, and so have a major issue before us.   MARK MINTON: I mentioned that in a few days there will be a Republic of Korea-China summit in Beijing. I wonder if perhaps Ambassador Lord and Evans Revere could talk to the symbolic and substantive importance of this summit. There are a number of interesting things about it. For the first time, we have two new leaders of the Republic of Korea and China involved in a summit. It's also a tradition to have the United States be the first summit held with a new Korean leader and the second being held with Japan. In this case Japan is being bypassed, if I can put it that way, and the second summit is with China. It's also interesting that the Chinese leadership will be meeting with President Park before a summit between the relatively new North Korean leader and new Chinese leader. In the background, of course, we know that China in recent years has acquired, because of North Korean belligerence and intransigence towards its other neighbors, perhaps the highest degree of exclusive leverage outside of Pyongyang that it's ever had. And, of course, China has, for a number of years, been the Republic of Korea's number one trading partner. So, there's a lot of importance attached to this summit. I wonder if you could, Ambassador Lord, maybe speak to the Chinese side's expectations and Evans to the Korean side's expectations, please.   AMBASSADOR LORD: First, a quick segue. You mentioned Japan. There's some concern by Japan that while Abe was invited to have a one-day working affair with President Obama, Chinese President Xi had a two-day informal summit meeting in California. That was followed up, as you pointed out, by South Korea having their second summit with China and not with Japan. Japan already has an inferiority complex about its decline in the world, which Abe is trying to reverse. I think we have to pay close attention to our relations with Japan, because they're absolutely crucial; and I share Evans's concern about the South Korean-Japanese tensions. This is a really serious problem. I think that point has to be kept in mind. Now, with respect to China hosting this summit, they're going to straddle as they always have. As you just mentioned, they have tremendous economic interests with South Korea. As Evans and I have both said, they're not going to walk away from North Korea. The rhetoric may be more balanced, but they provide to North Korea something like 90 percent of the energy and 50 percent of the food. Even as they've been saying they're going to follow UN sanctions against North Korea, which they've promised before, they continue to dilute and undercut those sanctions. They're building a bridge across the North Korean border, and that's going to continue. They're still worried, as I said earlier, about a unified Korea with potential American troops. Having said that, the Chinese are increasingly frustrated with North Korea. First, there is the real danger of war breaking out. In past crises and also in the most recent ones, we have advised China to remind their North Korean friends that not only will there be a response if there's a military action like there was a couple of years ago, but it will be a disproportionate response. Secondly, there's some talk in both Japan and South Korea of a need to have their own nuclear weapons. I don't believe it, frankly. Nevertheless, it ought to make the Chinese a little nervous. This is clearly not in China's interest, but it's fueled by North Korea's posture. Thirdly, the American rebalancing is about much more than an increase in our military presence in Asia and it's not all directed at China. It's because Asia is the most important region for us. There are many diplomatic regional institutions and economic dimensions beyond the military. Having said that, North Korean provocations are fueling response in the region (as well as China's assertiveness) and a buildup of alliances and exercises and exchanges. This can't be in China's interest, either. So for all these reasons, North Korea is undercutting China's national interest. That's another reason it will be somewhat more balanced than it has been in the past. I think they will give a friendly reception to Park, but I don't think you're going to see any major change in their posture.   MARK MINTON: Evans?   EVANS REVERE: I second everything Ambassador Lord just said. Mark asked me to speak about expectations of the upcoming ROK-China summit. Let me give you an American take on things—that it's going to be fascinating from a number of perspectives to see a Korean President in Beijing speaking to the Chinese leadership in fluent Chinese. In addition to her excellent English, she also speaks Chinese very well. I'll be interested to see how the Chinese react to that. Beyond that there are, all around, new leaders we're dealing with here. President Park's predecessor, President Lee, had a proper but occasionally difficult relationship with the Chinese. I think one of the greatest steps forward in Chinese-ROK relations has already taken place, and this invitation was offered and accepted. I think the bilateral relationship between Beijing and Seoul is already in a better place, and I think that's a good thing. In going to Beijing, I think President Park has an opportunity to take advantage of the ongoing tactical shift by China with respect to the Korean Peninsula, and to use this opportunity to try to get China to engage in some new and expanded thinking about the future of the Korean Peninsula. I think it's very important that the Chinese leadership begin to do what many Chinese scholars are already doing, which is looking at the end game on the Korean Peninsula and getting the Chinese leadership to understand that North Korea is, at the end of the day, not a sustainable entity. The Chinese leadership needs to begin thinking about what the future of that Peninsula will look like when the day finally comes that North Korea, one way or the other, leaves the scene. The President of the ROK needs to make the case in Beijing that North Korea is increasingly a strategic liability for China. The level of tensions that North Korea creates, its determination to keep and even expand its nuclear weapons and missile capabilities, the very troublesome behavior that we've seen from North Korea in recent months, its threat to use nuclear weapons and all of those things necessarily require a very strong and very clear response by the United States, the ROK and others in the region. Part of that response is a military response, which is certainly not in China's interest. A fundamental point that I think needs to be made by President Park is a point that I believe President Obama has made to the Chinese—that the North Koreans are not their friends. On paper they may be an ally of China's, but they are not doing China or China's security environment any good. I'm fairly confident that President Park will make those points. There is a growing economic people-to-people social relationship between the ROK and China. If you look at the trade numbers and the mutual exchange of visitors and delegations, there's a tremendously lively relationship right now between the PRC and the ROK. That's a good thing. And another collateral message that needs to be conveyed to the Chinese by President Park is that this is the future. This is what the Korean Peninsula's relationship with China could look like in a much broader and more significant way. I think that would be a message that would be reassuring to Beijing.   At the end of the day, I think the President of the ROK needs to plant the seed in the mind of the Chinese leadership that there is a different future for the Korean Peninsula: one that would contribute in a significant way to peace and stability in Northeast Asia, and contribute to China's own strategic interests in Northeast Asia. I hope, from an American's perspective that, that message is conveyed.   MARK MINTON: Dr. Zagoria, do you have any final thoughts?   DONALD ZAGORIA: I just want to make one point about China's role in the Korean Peninsula. Now, this China-South Korea summit is taking place before a China-North Korea summit. That message will not be lost in Pyongyang. Moreover, there have been other messages that have been sent by the Chinese recently. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said they can't accept troublemakers on their doorstep. Although he didn't mention Pyongyang by name, I think the point came across quite clearly as to whom who he was referring. When Vice Marshal Choe was in Beijing, the Chinese kept saying “denuclearization, denuclearization, denuclearization.” Vice Marshal Choe did not repeat those words. Now we have the China-South Korea summit. My point is that yes, it's true that the Chinese are not ready to throw North Korea under the bus, but I don't expect China to throw North Korea under the bus. China, however (and this is a very important point) is adopting a more balanced policy between North Korea and South Korea. A DPRK delegation was recently in Beijing, and now there's going to be a summit with the ROK President. A more balanced policy between the North and the South, to the extent that China adopts it, is good for peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula. It suggests to both Koreas that China has an important stake in peace and stability in the Peninsula, as do we. I don't think this should be lost in the shuffle.
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Following on the historic Obama-Xi summit in California, in anticipation of the late June Xi-Park summit, and in marking the 60th anniversary of the end of the Korean War, The Korea Society hosts several prominent voices on Asia. The National Committee on American Foreign Policy's Don Zagoria, Evans Revere, Ambassador Winston Lord and The Korea Society President, Ambassador Mark Minton (Moderator), address Northeast Asia relations today. The speakers share perspectives on the recent China-U.S. summit and... Read More